The Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated that the economy continued to add jobs in May. However, the employment levels for 3 of the 4 multifamily-related job categories we track were reported to be lower than the preliminary levels reported last month.
Revisions boost headline number
The BLS reported that total seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 139,000 jobs to 159,561,000 jobs in May, based on their survey of business establishments. This compares to the monthly average employment gain of 144,000 jobs over the last 12 months and 157,000 jobs over the last 6 months. However, last month’s employment level was revised lower in this month’s report, falling by 95,000 jobs.
The history of the overall U.S. employment level is shown in the first chart, below. It shows that employment continues to grow at a steady pace but that it remains well below the level it would have achieved if its growth was following the pre-pandemic trend.
The BLS household survey reported that the U.S. unemployment rate remained at 4.2 percent. However, when computed to 2 decimal places, the unemployment rate rose from 4.19 percent to 4.24 percent. The household survey found that the number of employed people was 163,273,000. This is 671,000 people less than the figure reported last month. The number of unemployed people was 7,237,000, up 72,000 from last month’s reported figure.
The household survey also found that the number of people in the civilian labor force was 170,510,000, down by 599,000. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.26 percentage points to 62.37 percent. It had been at 63.33 percent before the pandemic. Recovering that 0.96 percent decline in the labor force participation rate would bring 2.62 million more people into the workforce.
The next chart shows the recent reports on total employment based on the survey of business establishments. It shows that employment has continued to increase but that revisions to the prior month’s data have reduced the measured employment levels.
Tracking multifamily employment
The BLS reported more detailed employment information on four job categories of interest to the multifamily industry. These are employment as residential construction workers, as specialty trades within residential construction, as residential property managers and as lessors of residential buildings. As usual, some of the data was reported with a one month delay, so the latest figures for the latter two categories are for the month of April.
Residential construction employment lower
The next chart shows the history of the levels of employment since 2015 in the two construction jobs categories we track.
Employment in residential building construction in May, usually with general contractors, was reported to be up by 3,600 jobs. In addition, the prior month’s employment level was revised higher by 2,900 jobs so reported employment in this category is 6,500 jobs higher than the preliminary value reported last month. Employment in this category is now 962,800 jobs, up 2.1 percent year-over-year.
Employment in residential building trades, i.e. plumbers, electricians, etc., in May was reported to be down by 11,000 jobs from last month’s level. In addition, the April jobs figure was revised lower by 1,900 jobs so employment in this category is 12,900 jobs lower than the level reported last month. Employment in residential building trades is now 2,380,200 jobs, down 0.9 percent year-over-year.
Total May employment in these two categories of residential construction jobs combined is down 0.22 percent from the revised level of the month before. It is down 0.03 percent year-over-year.
Property management jobs decline
The next chart shows the history of the levels of employment since 2015 in the two property management jobs categories we track.
Employment for residential property managers in April was reported to be down by 1,100 jobs from its revised (-100 jobs) level for March to 553,100 jobs. Employment in this category is up 2.4 percent year-over-year.
Employment for lessors of residential buildings in April was reported to be down 400 jobs from its revised (+200) level for March at 369,200 jobs. Employment in this category is up 0.1 percent year-over-year.
Total multifamily employment in these two jobs categories combined was reported to be down 0.16 percent from the revised level for last month but up 1.49 percent year-over-year.
All four jobs categories see relative declines
The final chart, below, presents the employment data in a different format. It normalizes the employment levels in each of the four jobs categories to a reading of 100 for January 2015. It also provides trend lines for the growth in each of the categories of employment based on the period from January 2015 through February 2020.
Residential building construction employment is now 4.5 percent below trend. Residential trades employment is now 7.1 percent below trend. Residential property managers employment is 0.3 percent below trend and lessors of residential buildings employment is now 6.1 percent below trend.
The numbers given in the Employment Situation report are seasonally adjusted and are subject to revision. It is common for small adjustments to be made in subsequent reports, particularly to the data for the most recent month. The current Employment Situation report can be found here.
