{"id":7306,"date":"2018-04-04T14:02:45","date_gmt":"2018-04-04T21:02:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mhpmag.com\/?p=7306"},"modified":"2018-05-01T12:00:08","modified_gmt":"2018-05-01T19:00:08","slug":"what-fridays-u-s-jobs-report-means-interest-rates-gdp-and-labor-force-participation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/yieldpro.com\/2018\/04\/what-fridays-u-s-jobs-report-means-interest-rates-gdp-and-labor-force-participation\/","title":{"rendered":"What Friday\u2019s U.S. jobs report means: Interest rates, GDP, and labor force participation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Two economists from California made the following comments regarding this coming Friday\u2019s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics\u2019 non-farm payrolls employment report for March:<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Robert Eyler, Board Member of Redwood Credit Union and Economist at Sonoma State University<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cFriday\u2019s jobs report may be part of a larger trend as we begin looking back at the first quarter of this year.<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> We will soon see whether or not the recent congressional tax bill has led to immediate business investment and higher wage offerings, and if these jolts did enough to attract entrants into the labor market who were sitting on the sidelines. If this is the case, then more jobs are getting filled by employers that have a larger labor force to draw from. <\/span>However, whatever jobs number is announced, the second-half of this year could turn out different. Many economists\u2019 employment forecasts going forward are less sanguine, especially with trade-war sabers rattling between other countries and the United States.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cThe more the jobs report meets the economic forecast expectations by the Federal Reserve, the more the Fed will like it because it will be \u2018on forecast,\u2019 which means the Fed\u2019s interest rate movement predictions for three movements higher (total) this year will hold steady. <u>If jobs are above forecast, it could signal more speedy wage and price growth, giving the Fed cause to add an additional rate increase this year versus its original plan. But if jobs are below forecast, equity markets won\u2019t like that, and it could keep the Fed basically on pace.<\/u> My guess is that job growth in the first quarter of this year will meet or beat targets, but it will do so in such a way that the Fed will stick to its original plan and equity markets will be little affected.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>\u201cIn general, employment numbers can be \u2018noisy\u2019 due to seasonality and structural shifts, so unfortunately the key to the monthly jobs announcement becomes whether it meets or beats expectations. Even when seasonal factors are taken out, the American economy generally hibernates a bit in the winter. But the recent congressional tax bill may help boost first-quarter 2018 economic growth (Gross Domestic Product\u2014GDP). <u>The current consensus forecast for the first quarter is between 2.4 and 2.7 percent economic growth, and maybe even as high as 2.9 percent growth for the past four quarters combined (annualized).<\/u>This potential first-quarter result, if realized, would not only be on pace with recent quarters, it would be higher than many previous first-quarter results from prior years.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cFor job hoppers and job seekers\u2014and those entering the labor force for the first time or coming back after an extended period\u2014the jobs are out there. <u>The key is to continually stay certified, don\u2019t stop completing new training courses, and engage in skills development. Don\u2019t just drift back into the labor force without updating your skills, no matter how small it may be.<\/u> This is an economy where it\u2019s a great time to jump into the workforce if you have the right skills in place.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>Dwight Johnston, Chief Economist for the California Credit Union League<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cThe bond market is almost solely focused on the hourly-wage growth component of Friday\u2019s jobs report. <u>But until there is more clarity on where the domestic trade scuffle is headed, the impact of Friday\u2019s employment report will not be lasting.<\/u> What\u2019s interesting is, interest rates are actually lower than before the last big gain in non-farm payroll jobs of 316,000 in February and the Federal Reserve\u2019s tightening.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><u>\u201cIf an impending trade war or a real trade war between the United States and China is still afoot and the U.S. stock market is still tumbling by June, it doesn\u2019t really matter how much wage growth or job growth we have.<\/u> A trade war\u2019s impact has consequences\u2014to what degree if one happens, only time will tell. Some analysts believe Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will act differently from his predecessors and raise interest rates if the employment numbers dictate, regardless of the stock market\u2019s movements. Just from experience, I\u2019ll believe it when I see it.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h5><strong>About California Credit Union League<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>The California Credit Union League is based in Ontario, CA and is the state trade association for 312 credit unions headquartered in California (as of fourth-quarter 2017). The League represents the interests of 11.5 million credit union members across the state who are member-owners of their credit unions. Credit unions help consumers afford life and prosper.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two economists from California made the following comments regarding this coming Friday\u2019s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics\u2019 non-farm payrolls employment report for March: Robert Eyler, Board Member of Redwood Credit Union and Economist at Sonoma State University \u201cFriday\u2019s jobs report may be part of a larger trend as we begin looking back at the first [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":7307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1114,605,432],"tags":[1116,8014,608],"class_list":["post-7306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-apartment-watch","category-news","category-pacific-region","tag-apartment-watch","tag-gdp","tag-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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