The Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that November employment levels in 3 of the 4 multifamily-related job categories we track were below the preliminary levels reported last month.
Overall employment gains grow
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that total seasonally-adjusted non-farm employment increased by 199,000 jobs in November to 157,087,000 jobs, based on their survey of business establishments. This compares to revised employment gains of 153,000 jobs in October. However, the October employment level was revised lower in the latest report by 35,000 jobs.
The BLS household survey reported that the US unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 percent. The household survey found that the number of employed persons rose by 747,000 from that reported last month to 161,969,000. The number of unemployed persons fell by 215,000 to 6,291,000.
The household survey also found that the number of people in the civilian labor force rose by 532,000 in November while the adult civilian population rose by 180,000. The labor force participation rate remained at 62.8 percent. It had been at 63.4 percent before the pandemic. Recovering that 0.7 percent decline in the labor force participation rate would bring 1.87 million more people into the workforce.
Tracking multifamily employment
The BLS reported more detailed employment information on four job categories of interest to the multifamily industry. These are employment as residential construction workers, as specialty trades within residential construction, as residential property managers and as lessors of residential buildings. As usual, some of the data is reported with a month delay, so the latest figures for the latter two categories are for the month of October.
The first chart shows the history of the levels of employment in these four jobs categories since 2015.
Residential construction employment weakens
Employment in residential building construction in November, usually with general contractors, was reported to be down by 1,700 jobs. This was in addition to an downward revision of the prior month’s employment level by 100 jobs. The employment level for September was also revised lower by 700 jobs. Employment in this category is now 933,700 jobs, up 0.5 percent year-over-year.
Employment in residential building trades, i.e. plumbers, electricians, etc., in November was reported to be up by 2,700 jobs from October’s revised (-5,300 jobs) level. Employment in this category is now 2,370,200 jobs, up 2.1 percent year-over-year.
Total September employment in these two categories of residential construction jobs combined is up less than 0.1 percent from the revised level of the month before and up 1.6 percent year-over-year. It is down 0.1 percent from the preliminary level for October contained in last month’s report.
Apartment operations jobs on the rise
Employment for residential property managers in October was reported to be up by 700 jobs from its level for September to 514,000 jobs. Employment for residential property managers is up 2.2 percent year-over-year.
Employment for lessors of residential buildings in October was reported to fall by 400 jobs from its level for September to 372,000 jobs. Employment in this category is up 1.7 percent year-over-year.
Total employment in these two categories of apartment operations jobs combined was reported to be up less than 0.1 percent from the revised level for last month. It is up 2.0 percent year-over-year.
Growth below trend
The final chart, below, presents the employment data in a different format. It normalizes the employment levels in all four jobs categories to a reading of 100 for January 2015. It also provides trend lines for the growth in each of the categories of employment based on the period from January 2015 through February 2020.
The chart shows that none of the employment levels in the four categories of jobs that we track are currently at the levels of their pre-pandemic trend. Only employment for residential building construction ever exceeded its trend line in the post-pandemic period but is has recently been falling behind its trend.
Residential building construction employment is now 2.6 percent below trend. Residential trades employment is now 2.8 percent below trend. Residential property managers employment is 3.4 percent below trend and lessors of residential buildings employment is now 3.6 percent below trend.
The numbers given in the Employment Situation report are seasonally adjusted and are subject to revision. It is common for small adjustments to be made in subsequent reports, particularly to the data for the most recent month. The current Employment Situation report can be found here.
