The Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that overall employment growth fell sharply again in July from the gain initially reported for last month. In addition, last month’s employment growth was revised lower in this month’s report. The employment levels in 3 of the 4 of the multifamily-related job categories we track rose from the preliminary levels reported last month.
Revisions show slower employment growth
The BLS reported that total seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 114,000 jobs in July, based on their survey of business establishments. Last month’s gain of 218,000 jobs was revised down to 179,000 jobs.
Given the revisions, actual reported employment from the business survey is up by only 85,000 jobs from the preliminary level reported last month at 158,723,000 jobs.
The employment levels for recent months as given in the last three employment reports are illustrated in the first chart, below, based on the survey of business establishments. Generally, each report includes data for the current month and revised data for the previous two months. The chart shows that those revisions in recent reports have reduced the reported levels of employment.
The BLS household survey reported that the US unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 4.3 percent. The household survey found that the number of employed persons rose by 67,000 from that reported for last month to 161,266,000. The number of unemployed persons rose by 352,000 to 7,163,000.
The household survey also found that the number of people in the civilian labor force rose by 420,000 in July while the adult civilian population rose by 206,000. The labor force participation rate rose 0.11 percentage points to 62.70 percent. It had been at 63.33 percent before the pandemic. Recovering that 0.63 percent decline in the labor force participation rate would bring 1.69 million more people into the workforce.
Tracking multifamily employment
The BLS reported more detailed employment information on four job categories of interest to the multifamily industry. These are employment as residential construction workers, as specialty trades within residential construction, as residential property managers and as lessors of residential buildings. As usual, some of the data is reported with a month delay, so the latest figures for the latter two categories are for the month of June.
Mixed results for residential construction employment
The next chart shows the history of the levels of employment since 2015 in the two construction jobs categories we track.
Employment in residential building construction in July, usually with general contractors, was reported to be up by 1,700 jobs. However, the prior month’s employment level was revised lower by 3,300 jobs so reported employment in this category is 1,600 jobs lower than the preliminary value reported last month. Employment in this category is now 950,200 jobs, up 3.3 percent year-over-year.
Employment in residential building trades, i.e. plumbers, electricians, etc., in July was reported to be up 7,400 jobs from last month’s level. In addition, the June jobs figure was revised higher by 4,000 jobs so employment in this category is 11,400 jobs higher than the level reported last month. Employment in residential building trades is now 2,419,600 jobs, up 1.6 percent year-over-year.
Total July employment in these two categories of residential construction jobs combined is up 0.27 percent from the revised level of the month before and up 2.1 percent year-over-year. It is up 0.29 percent from the preliminary level for June contained in last month’s report.
Positive month for multifamily jobs
The next chart shows the history of the levels of employment since 2015 in the two property management jobs categories we track.
Employment for residential property managers in June was reported to be up by 2,200 jobs from its revised (-200 jobs) level for May to 553,400 jobs. Employment for residential property managers is up 5.3 percent year-over-year.
Employment for lessors of residential buildings in June was reported to rise by 800 jobs from the revised (+500 jobs) level for May to 376,500 jobs. Employment in this category is up 1.8 percent year-over-year.
Total employment in these two categories of apartment operations jobs combined was reported to be up 0.32 percent from the revised level for last month and up 3.8 percent year-over-year. It is up 0.36 percent from the preliminary level for May contained in last month’s report.
Property manager employment beats trend
The final chart, below, presents the employment data in a different format. It normalizes the employment levels in each of the four jobs categories to a reading of 100 for January 2015. It also provides trend lines for the growth in each of the categories of employment based on the period from January 2015 through February 2020.
Residential building construction employment is now 3.2 percent below trend. Residential trades employment is now 3.0 percent below trend. Residential property managers employment is 2.1 percent above trend and lessors of residential buildings employment is now 3.3 percent below trend.
The numbers given in the Employment Situation report are seasonally adjusted and are subject to revision. It is common for small adjustments to be made in subsequent reports, particularly to the data for the most recent month. The current Employment Situation report can be found here.
