The Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that overall employment growth bounced back in November after last month’s collapse. In addition, last month’s employment level was revised higher in this month’s report, so the increase in the total employment level is better than the headline figure. In addition, the employment levels all 4 multifamily-related job categories we track showed increases from the preliminary levels reported last month.
Revisions eliminate employment growth
The BLS reported that total seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 227,000 jobs in November, based on their survey of business establishments. In addition, last month’s gain of 12,000 jobs was revised up to 36,000 jobs while September’s gain, reported as 223,000 jobs last month, was revised up to 256,000 jobs in this month’s report.
Given the revisions, the actual reported employment level from the business survey is up by 283,000 jobs from the preliminary level reported last month at 159,288,000 jobs.
The employment levels for recent months as given in the last three employment reports are illustrated in the first chart, below, based on the survey of business establishments. Generally, each report includes data for the current month and revised data for the previous two months. The chart shows that revisions in last month’s report were to the downside while revisions in this month’s report were to the upside but still left employment levels below the September estimates.
The BLS household survey reported that the U.S. unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.2 percent. The household survey found that the number of employed persons fell by 355,000 from that reported for last month to 161,141,000. The number of unemployed persons rose by 161,000 to 7,145,000.
The household survey also found that the number of people in the civilian labor force fell by 193,000 in November while the adult civilian population rose by 174,000. The labor force participation rate dropped to 62.45 percent. It had been at 63.33 percent before the pandemic. Recovering that 0.88 percent decline in the labor force participation rate would bring 2.37 million more people into the workforce.
Tracking multifamily employment
The BLS reported more detailed employment information on four job categories of interest to the multifamily industry. These are employment as residential construction workers, as specialty trades within residential construction, as residential property managers and as lessors of residential buildings. As usual, some of the data was reported with a one month delay, so the latest figures for the latter two categories are for the month of October.
Residential construction employment increases
The next chart shows the history of the levels of employment since 2015 in the two construction jobs categories we track.
Employment in residential building construction in November, usually with general contractors, was reported to be up by 1,400 jobs. However, the prior month’s employment level was revised lower by 1,600 jobs so reported employment in this category is 200 jobs lower than the preliminary value reported last month. Employment in this category is now 957,600 jobs, up 2.8 percent year-over-year.
Employment in residential building trades, i.e. plumbers, electricians, etc., in November was reported to be up by 1,700 jobs from last month’s level. In addition, the October jobs figure was revised higher by 900 jobs so employment in this category is 2,600 jobs higher than the level reported last month. Employment in residential building trades is now 2,416,200 jobs, up 1.1 percent year-over-year.
Total November employment in these two categories of residential construction jobs combined is up 0.09 percent from the revised level of the month before and up 1.6 percent year-over-year. It is up 0.07 percent from the preliminary level for October contained in last month’s report.
Property management jobs higher
The next chart shows the history of the levels of employment since 2015 in the two property management jobs categories we track.
Employment for residential property managers in October was reported to be up by 700 jobs from its revised (-200 jobs) level for September to 558,500 jobs. Employment for residential property managers is up 5.1 percent year-over-year.
Employment for lessors of residential buildings in October was reported to be up 900 jobs from the revised (-400 jobs) level for September at 378,200 jobs. Employment in this category is up 1.8 percent year-over-year.
Total employment in these two categories of apartment operations jobs combined was reported to be up 0.17 percent from the revised level for last month and up 3.8 percent year-over-year. It is up 0.11 percent from the preliminary level for September contained in last month’s report.
Illustrating trends
The final chart, below, presents the employment data in a different format. It normalizes the employment levels in each of the four jobs categories to a reading of 100 for January 2015. It also provides trend lines for the growth in each of the categories of employment based on the period from January 2015 through February 2020.
Residential building construction employment is now 3.2 percent below trend. Residential trades employment is now 3.9 percent below trend. Residential property managers employment is 2.1 percent above trend and lessors of residential buildings employment is now 3.3 percent below trend.
The numbers given in the Employment Situation report are seasonally adjusted and are subject to revision. It is common for small adjustments to be made in subsequent reports, particularly to the data for the most recent month. The current Employment Situation report can be found here.
