The Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated employment grew in July, but this was aided by significant downward revisions in the reported employment levels for the prior 2 months. The employment levels for residential construction workers fell while jobs for residential property managers increased compared to the levels reported last month.
Employment weaker than reported earlier
The BLS reported that total seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 73,000 jobs (+0.05 percent) to 159,539,000 jobs in July, based on their survey of business establishments. With downward revisions to the employment growth figures for May and June, the trailing 6-month average employment gain dropped to 81,000 jobs from 130,000 jobs last month. Last month’s employment gain was revised lower by 130,000 jobs in this month’s report to only 14,000 jobs.
The history of the overall U.S. employment level is shown in the first chart, below. It also shows trend lines for both the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods, the latter since May 2023. While both periods show steady employment growth, the new trend not only starts at a lower employment level, but it has a lower slope, meaning that fewer jobs are being added each month than for the pre-pandemic trend.
The BLS household survey reported that the US unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent. When computed to 2 decimal places, the unemployment rate rose from 4.12 percent to 4.25 percent, nearly the same rate as given in the May report. The household survey found that the number of employed people was 163,106,000. This is 260,000 people less than the figure reported last month. The number of unemployed people was 7,236,000, up 221,000 from last month’s reported figure.
The household survey also found that the number of people in the civilian labor force was 170,342,000, down by 38,000. The civilian labor force has shrunk by 168,000 since May. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.06 percentage points to 62.22 percent. It had been at 63.33 percent before the pandemic. Recovering that 1.11 percent decline in the labor force participation rate would bring 3.04 million more people into the workforce.
The next chart shows the recent reports on total employment based on the survey of business establishments. It shows the significant downward revisions to the overall employment levels for the last 2 months in the July report.
Tracking multifamily employment
The BLS reported employment information on four job categories of interest to the multifamily industry. These are employment as residential construction workers, as specialty trades within residential construction, as residential property managers and as lessors of residential buildings. As usual, some of the data was reported with a one month delay, so the latest figures for the latter two categories are for the month of June.
Residential construction employment falls
The next chart shows the history of the levels of employment since 2017 in the two construction jobs categories we track, both of which turned in weak performances in July.
Employment in residential building construction in July, usually with general contractors, was reported to be down by 1,400 jobs. In addition, the prior month’s employment level was revised lower by 2,400 jobs so reported employment in this category is 3,800 jobs lower than the preliminary value reported last month. Employment in this category is now 954,700 jobs, up 1.5 percent year-over-year.
Employment in residential building trades, i.e. plumbers, electricians, etc., in July was reported to be down by 3,000 jobs from last month’s level. In addition, the June jobs figure was revised lower by 13,400 jobs so employment in this category is 16,400 jobs lower than the level reported last month. Employment in residential building trades is now 2,378,000 jobs, down 1.3 percent year-over-year.
Total July employment in these two categories of residential construction jobs combined is down 0.2 percent from the revised level of the month before. It is down 0.5 percent year-over-year.
Property management jobs increase
The next chart shows the history of the levels of employment since 2017 in the two property management jobs categories we track.
Employment for residential property managers in June was reported to be up by 2,200 jobs from its revised (+300 jobs) level for May to 558,100 jobs. Employment in this category is up 2.2 percent year-over-year.
Employment for lessors of residential buildings in June was reported to be up 800 jobs from its revised (-500 jobs) level for May at 369,600 jobs. Employment in this category is up 0.1 percent year-over-year.
Total employment in these two categories of apartment operations jobs combined was reported to be up 0.32 percent from the revised level for last month and up 1.34 percent year-over-year.
Employment growth lags
The final chart, below, presents the employment data in a different format. It normalizes the employment levels in each of the four jobs categories to a reading of 100 for January 2015. It also provides trend lines for the growth in each of the categories of employment based on the period from January 2015 through February 2020.
Residential building construction employment is now 5.8 percent below trend. Residential trades employment is now 7.7 percent below trend. Residential property managers employment is 0.2 percent above trend and lessors of residential buildings employment is now 6.2 percent below trend.
The numbers given in the Employment Situation report are seasonally adjusted and are subject to revision. It is common for small adjustments to be made in subsequent reports, particularly to the data for the most recent month. The current Employment Situation report can be found here.
