The Census Bureau’s new residential construction report for April showed multifamily permits were lower, starts rebounded higher and completions remained about the same.
Note that, with this report, the Census Bureau has revised its seasonal adjustment factors. They have restated their results back to January 2017 for permits and to January 2019 for starts and completions. Therefore, the results quoted for recent months in this month’s report may have a larger than usual variation from the numbers given in past reports.
A look at single-family
The report on single-family housing construction showed that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, single family permits fell 0.8 percent month-over-month but were up 11.4 percent year-over-year to 976,000 annualized units. Last month’s permits figure was revised lower from 1,022,000 units to 984,000 on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Starts fell 0.4 percent month-over-month but rose 17.7 percent year-over-year to 1,031,000 units. Completions rebounded from last month’s depressed level, rising 15.4 percent month-over-month and 13.6 percent year-over-year to 1,092,000 units. The reported number of single-family units under construction fell 7,000 from the level of the month before to 682,000 units.
Multifamily housing permits fall
The number of permits issued for buildings with 5 or more units in April was reported to be 408,000 units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis. Permit issuance was down 9.1 percent from March’s revised (+16,000 units) figure. April permits were down 23.0 percent from the level recorded in April 2023 and were also down 16.7 percent from the trailing 12-month average.
In addition, 56,000 permits were issued in April for units in buildings with 2 to 4 units. This was up 6,000 units from the figure for March. April permits for units in buildings with 2 to 4 units were down 12.7 percent from the year-ago level but were up 3.1 percent from the trailing 12-month average.
Regional data for multifamily housing is only reported for structures with two or more units. “Structures with 5 or more units” is not broken out as a separate category. Since the regional data is highly volatile and is frequently revised, it is examined here based on three-month weighted moving averages. This averaging helps smooth out the month-to-month variations in the data so that underlying trends are more visible.
Nationally, the three-month weighted moving average for permits issued for multifamily housing in April was down 4.0 percent from the level in March and was down 24.6 percent from the level of April 2023. The three-month weighted moving average for permits came in at 488,000 annualized units.
On a month-over-month basis, the three-month weighted moving average for multifamily permit issuance was up 9.3 percent in the South. Permit issuance fell 8.0 percent in the Northeast, 10.5 percent in the West and 22.8 percent in the Midwest.
When compared to year-earlier levels, the three-month weighted moving average of permits issued was up 9.9 percent in the Northeast but down in other regions of the country. Permits fell 25.0 percent in the Midwest, 26.3 percent in the South and 40.5 percent in the West.
The following chart shows the three-month weighted moving averages of permits by region for the last 25 months.
Multifamily housing construction starts rebound
The preliminary April figure for multifamily housing starts in buildings with 5 or more units was 322,000 units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis. This was reported to be up 31.4 percent (77,000 units) from the revised (-45,000 units) figure for March.
Compared to the year-earlier level, multifamily housing starts in buildings with 5 or more units were down 32.9 percent. The reported starts figure was 21.5 percent lower than the trailing 12-month average.
Multifamily housing construction starts (two or more units per building) in April were down 2.2 percent from their March level for the country as-a-whole, based on three-month weighted moving averages. Starts rose 9.0 percent in the South and 6.1 percent in the Midwest. Starts fell 10.0 percent in the West and 37.9 percent in the Northeast.
The three-month weighted moving average of starts was down 38.5 percent for the country-as-a-whole on a year-over-year basis. Compared to April 2023, starts were down 2.1 percent in the Midwest, 40.0 percent in the South, 42.1 percent in the West and 73.1 percent in the Northeast.
The following chart shows the three-month weighted moving average of starts by region for the last 25 months.
Multifamily housing completions edge lower
The preliminary April multifamily housing unit completions figure in buildings with 5 or more units per building was 502,000 units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis. Completions were reported to be down 6,000 units (1.1 percent) in April. However, March’s completions figure was revised higher by 20,000 units.
Compared to the year-earlier level, multifamily housing completions in buildings with 5 or more units per building were up 18.1 percent. Compared to the trailing 12-month average, completions were up 9.1 percent.
For the country as-a-whole, multifamily housing construction completions (two or more units per building) were down 5.1 percent month-over-month, comparing three-month weighted moving averages. The three-month weighted moving average of completions was up 0.9 percent in the South but down 4.9 percent in the Midwest, 8.1 percent in the Northeast and 15.0 percent in the West.
On a year-over-year basis, the three-month weighted moving average of completions in buildings with 2 or more units per building was up 16.5 percent nationally. Completions were up 59.8 percent in the South. Completions fell 2.0 percent in the Midwest, 3.9 percent in the West and 33.8 percent in the Northeast.
The three-month weighted moving average of completions by region for the past 25 months are shown in the chart below.
The number of multifamily units reported to be under construction fell again in April. Census reported that there were 919,000 units under construction in buildings with 5 or more units per building on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. This was reported to be down by 15,000 units from the revised (-6,000 units) level of the month before. It is 5.2 percent, or 50,000 units, lower than the number of units under construction one year earlier.
All data quoted are based on seasonally adjusted results and are subject to revision.
