The Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that overall employment growth collapsed in October. In addition, last month’s employment level was revised lower in this month’s report, so total employment is actually lower than what was indicated in last month’s report. However, the employment levels in 3 of the 4 multifamily-related job categories we track managed to eke out gains from the preliminary levels reported last month.
Revisions eliminate employment growth
The BLS reported that total seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 12,000 jobs in October, based on their survey of business establishments. However, last month’s gain of 254,000 jobs was revised down to 223,000 jobs while August’s gain, reported as 144,000 jobs last month, was revised down to 78,000 jobs in this month’s report.
Given the revisions, the actual reported employment level from the business survey is down by 100,000 jobs from the preliminary level reported last month at 159,005,000 jobs.
The employment levels for recent months as given in the last three employment reports are illustrated in the first chart, below, based on the survey of business establishments. Generally, each report includes data for the current month and revised data for the previous two months. The chart shows that revisions in last month’s report were to the upside while revisions in this month’s report were to the downside.
The BLS household survey reported that the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent. The household survey found that the number of employed persons fell by 368,000 from that reported for last month to 161,496,000. The number of unemployed persons rose by 150,000 to 6,984,000.
The household survey also found that the number of people in the civilian labor force fell by 220,000 in October while the adult civilian population rose by 209,000. The labor force participation rate dropped to 62.56 percent. It had been at 63.33 percent before the pandemic. Recovering that 0.77 percent decline in the labor force participation rate would bring 2.07 million more people into the workforce.
Tracking multifamily employment
The BLS reported more detailed employment information on four job categories of interest to the multifamily industry. These are employment as residential construction workers, as specialty trades within residential construction, as residential property managers and as lessors of residential buildings. As usual, some of the data was reported with a one month delay, so the latest figures for the latter two categories are for the month of September.
Residential construction employment lower overall
The next chart shows the history of the levels of employment since 2015 in the two construction jobs categories we track.
Employment in residential building construction in October, usually with general contractors, was reported to be up by 2,100 jobs. In addition, the prior month’s employment level was revised higher by 4,200 jobs so reported employment in this category is 6,300 jobs higher than the preliminary value reported last month. Employment in this category is now 957,800 jobs, up 2.8 percent year-over-year.
Employment in residential building trades, i.e. plumbers, electricians, etc., in October was reported to be down by 6,600 jobs from last month’s level. In addition, the September jobs figure was revised lower by 4,500 jobs so employment in this category is 11,100 jobs lower than the level reported last month. Employment in residential building trades is now 2,413,600 jobs, up 0.8 percent year-over-year.
Total October employment growth in these two categories of residential construction jobs combined is -0.13 percent from the revised level of the month before but +1.3 percent year-over-year. It is down 0.14 percent from the preliminary level for September contained in last month’s report.
Property management jobs squeak out an increase
The next chart shows the history of the levels of employment since 2015 in the two property management jobs categories we track.
Employment for residential property managers in September was reported to be up by 1,300 jobs from its revised (-1,100 jobs) level for August to 558,000 jobs. Employment for residential property managers is up 5.2 percent year-over-year.
Employment for lessors of residential buildings in September was reported to be up 400 jobs from the revised (-300 jobs) level for August at 377,700 jobs. Employment in this category is up 1.6 percent year-over-year.
Total employment growth in these two categories of apartment operations jobs combined was reported to be +0.18 percent from the revised level for last month and +3.7 percent year-over-year. Employment is up 0.03 percent from the preliminary level for August contained in last month’s report.
Illustrating trends
The final chart, below, presents the employment data in a different format. It normalizes the employment levels in each of the four jobs categories to a reading of 100 for January 2015. It also provides trend lines for employment growth in each of the four jobs categories based on the period from January 2015 through February 2020.
Residential building construction employment is now 3.2 percent below trend. Residential trades employment is now 4.0 percent below trend. Residential property managers employment is 2.2 percent above trend and lessors of residential buildings employment is now 3.3 percent below trend.
The numbers given in the Employment Situation report are seasonally adjusted and are subject to revision. It is common for small adjustments to be made in subsequent reports, particularly to the data for the most recent month. The current Employment Situation report can be found here
