Rent growth still in seasonal decline

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high absorption leads to rent growth and rising occupancy

Yardi Matrix reported that the national average asking apartment rent was down $4 in December compared to the revised level of the month before at $1,742 per month. The national average year-over-year asking apartment rent growth was +0.6 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from the rate reported last month. The month-over-month rent growth rate was -0.2 percent.

Rents in the “lifestyle” asset class, usually Class A properties, were down 0.2 percent year-over-year, while rents in “renter by necessity” (RBN) properties increased by 1.6 percent year-over-year. The lifestyle rent growth is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s rate while the RBN rent growth is down 0.3 percentage points. The chart, below, shows the history of the year-over-year rent growth rates for these two asset classes along with the difference between these rates.

Yardi Matrix reported rent growth by asset class

After 4 months where the year-over-year rent growth in the lifestyle class has been either 0.0 or -0.1 percent, rents made a more definite downward move in this month’s report. However, given that the rent growth rate is only quoted to a single decimal place, this apparent increase could just be a matter of rounding. The year-over-year rent growth reported for RBN properties was the lowest since February 2021.

Yardi Matrix reported that the U.S. average occupancy rate in November was unchanged for that of the month before at 94.7 percent.

Seeking balance

The discussion portion of Yardi Matrix’s report this month focused on the balance between apartment demand and new supply. It noted that, in many high supply markets like Austin and Raleigh, high rates of absorption are keeping occupancy rates steady.

By region, absorption is outpacing new supply in the Northeast and Midwest, leading to positive rent growth. New supply is outpacing absorption in the Southwest, West and Southeast leading to rent declines in the Southwest and only modest rent growth in the West and Southeast.

The report also contains metro-level data with Chicago, Central New Jersey and Detroit being examples of metros where absorption is outpacing new supply. All saw rents rise at faster-than-national rates. San Antonio, Southwest Florida Coast and Nashville are examples of metros where new supply is greatly outpacing absorption, leading to declining rents.

Tabulating the data

Yardi Matrix reports on other key rental market metrics in addition to rent growth. These include the year-over-year job growth rate based on the 6 month moving average and the completions over the prior 12 months as a percentage of existing stock. The 10 metros with the largest annual apartment rent increases are listed in the table below, along with the other data.

City YoY rent YoY rent
last month
YoY jobs
(6 mo moving avg)
Completions as % of stock
New York 5.0 5.0 1.7 1.5
Kansas City 3.9 3.4 1.5 2.4
New Jersey 3.8 2.5 1.7 2.6
Chicago 3.3 2.7 0.1 1.3
Columbus 3.1 2.3 0.5 3.5
Washington DC 2.8 2.8 0.6 1.9
Indianapolis 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.7
Detroit 2.5 3.2 0.3 0.8
Baltimore 2.2 2.4 0.0 1.3
Philadelphia 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.9

The major metros with the smallest year-over-year apartment rent growth as determined by Yardi Matrix are listed in the next table, below, along with the other data as in the table above.

City YoY rent YoY rent
last month
YoY jobs
(6 mo moving avg)
Completions as % of stock
Austin (5.9) (5.6) 1.7 7.5
Raleigh (3.1) (2.7) 2.4 6.4
Atlanta (2.9) (2.6) 1.3 3.5
Phoenix (2.9) (2.2) 2.2 4.5
Denver (2.2) (1.7) 0.2 5.5
Orlando (2.2) (2.1) 1.5 5.1
Dallas (1.9) (2.0) 1.6 3.3
Nashville (1.6) (1.7) 0.6 5.9
Charlotte (1.4) (1.9) 1.8 5.7
Las Vegas (0.8) (0.1) 3.3 2.7

The top metros for month-over month rent growth in December were New Jersey, Columbus and Chicago and New York. Only New York was in the top 4 in last month’s report. The trailing metros this month were Austin, Las Vegas Denver and Raleigh. Both Denver and Austin were in the bottom 4 in last month’s report.

Single-family rentals rents fall again

Yardi Matrix also reported that single-family rental (SFR) rents fell $7 in December from the revised level of the month before to $2,141 per month. The year-over-year SFR rent growth rate fell to -0.8 percent.

Yardi Matrix reported on the top 34 markets for built-to-rent single-family rentals, 12 of which saw rents grow year-over-year in December. The leading markets for year-over-year rent growth were Kansas City, Grand Rapids, Columbus and Greenville.

The markets with the lowest year-over-year rent growth were Austin, Pensacola, Dallas and Phoenix.

The national occupancy rate for single-family rentals fell 0.1 percentage point from that reported last month to 95.0 percent.

This month, 12 of the metros saw year-over-year occupancy increases. The metros with the largest year-over-year occupancy increases were Salt Lake City, Nashville, Austin and Pensacola. The metros with the greatest occupancy declines were Indianapolis, Greenville, Jacksonville and Dallas, the same as last month.

The complete Yardi Matrix report provides information on some of the smaller multifamily housing markets and more information on the differences in results between lifestyle and RBN properties. It can be found here.